10.24.18
It has been about a week since a caravan of migrants primarily from Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador left Honduras walked across Guatemala and have entered the southern Mexico state of Chiapas. There have ben reports that the caravan numbers over a thousand people. All plan to come to the United States to seek Asylum. I wonder how many people will be harmed or die? I wonder how much money the Drug Cartels in Mexico will make on human trafficing? I wonder how much this will cost the taxpayer? None of these questions can have good answers.
10.18.18
This is very interesting. The information below is part of a 10-16 email from Moveon.org –
Dear MoveOn member,
Huge news: For months now, the data nerds here at MoveOn have been testing a secret weapon to turn out voters, and it is proving to be as much as FIVE TIMES MORE COST-EFFECTIVE than other get-out-the-vote methods, according to independent researchers.
Let’s put that in perspective: Normally, MoveOn’s team is delighted if we figure out something that gives us a 10% improvement. In this case, our tests of our new program show an improvement of as much as 400% over television ads.
These are some of the most promising results we’ve ever seen. We’ve been honing this program since 2017.
MoveOn discovered just how effective this method was by testing it out in last year’s state races in Virginia, as well as in special elections in Alabama and Pennsylvania.
According to independent analysts:
Our “Real Voter Voices” program added thousands of votes for Ralph Northam in Virginia.
It also added thousands of votes in December’s razor-tight special election in Alabama—making a huge difference in the final vote count between Doug Jones and Roy Moore.
And in the case of Conor Lamb, who won a narrow victory in a special election the heart of Pennsylvania Trump country, our program was one of the decisive factors!
(We wish we could share exact numbers—which are incredible!—but we’d prefer to keep them secret from Republicans.)
With just weeks until the election, it’s too late for Republicans to steal this approach. So here is more detail than we’ve shared before on how our Real Voter Voices program works:
First, we start with authentic and personal videos. MoveOn members in key districts and states record short, unscripted videos about why this election matters to them and why they’re voting for a MoveOn-endorsed candidate. We’ve now collected, vetted, and prepped more than 2,000 videos that speak compellingly to voters of all walks of life. That’s right: real people, neighbors, constituents—not paid actors, high-price commercial ads, or trolls, bots, and other nefarious social media deceptions we’re all too aware of now.
Then, by using cutting-edge analytics, we target voters who will find those specific videos compelling. Our analysts use lots of data and math to develop sophisticated algorithms to show each video to the voters who will most likely be persuaded by it to turn out to vote. This is possible only because MoveOn has expanded its data science team this year—and now we’re able to compete at a level like never before.
And finally, we win BIG! When voters see videos of real people in their community—with the authentic voices that can appeal specifically to them—it has a HUGE impact on voter turnout. It’s as though we sent the best possible canvasser straight to their door. Every dollar we spend on this has the impact of five dollars spent in other, more traditional ways.
I am sure the Republicans don’t have any such personal contact program that can so specifically target voters by demographics and get demographically targeted videos to them in such a direct and immediate way. It sounds like Moveon has scored a slam dunk on this. The Republicans have to be paying attention to how effective this is in the upcoming election, because if they are not they’re idiots. If Republicans could loose the upcoming election in a big way they are really going to be scrambling to catch up to the Democrats for “targeted voter contact” in 2020.
10.8.18
A couple of days ago Brett Kavanaugh was confirmed as a Supreme Court Judge by a vote of 50-48 by the Senate with Republicans Steve Dines and Lisa Murkowski not voting. Before that final vote was taken the Republicans had to use the “Nuclear Option” to get closure by a vote of 51-49, which was almost entirely along party lines, with all Democrats except Joe Manchin voting no and all Republicans except Lisa Murkowski voting yes.
It has been a wild couple of weeks since the allegations by Christine Ford of what is basically attempted rape were made public. Since that time both Kavanaugh and Ford testified in front of congress, and they both seemed believable. Then the FBI did a week long investigation of the charges and found no collaborating evidence. I have to note that Rachel Mitchell, the Arizona County prosecutor that the Republicans chose to cross-examine Ford, was absolutely inept and bordered on cowardly. She acted ashamed to ask any questions, and failed to ask many questions that obviously needed to be asked. Of course, most congressional hearings are feckless and generally a waste of time. The most common answers by witnesses or defendants in a congressional hearing are non-answers, usually something like “I don’t remember.” or “On the grounds of the fifth amendment…etc, etc” or “my attorney has advised me …etc, etc” or “In the interest of national security I cannot answer that question”. It is not surprising that these hearings were virtually useless. Even so, in this case Ms. Mitchell appeared absolutely gutless, she seemed more worried about offending Ms. Ford than she did about actually asking questions to find the truth.
In the mean time 2 other women publicly made sexual misconduct claims against Kavanaugh, both were quickly determined to be bogus. The attorney for Stormy Daniels, Michael Avanatti, had a client named Julie Swetnick who put forward a complaint that she had witnessed Kavanaugh drinking to excess and being verbally abusive to women. This claim was debunked within hours of its release. This was obviously a ploy by Avanatti to get media attention for himself. This is an attorney who’s claim to fame is that he represents a porn star who had sex with a guy that would become president 20 years later. The only person that did more to harm Ms. Ford’s believability than Avanetti was Nancy Pelosi.
Of course when it came time for the final vote there was one senator who was apparently undecided until the last day. In explaining her vote to confirm Kavanaugh Senator Susan Collins gave one of the most articulate and credible speeches I have ever heard from a politician. Every word of it made sense. What it basically came down to was that a person is innocent until proven guilty, and nothing has been proven against Kavanaugh.
As Senator Susan Collins stated –
”Mr. President, the politically charged atmosphere surrounding this nomination has reached a fever pitch even before these allegations were known, and it has been challenging even then to separate fact from fiction. We live in a time of such great disunity as the bitter fight over this nomination both in the Senate and among the public clearly demonstrates. It is not merely a case of differing groups having different opinions. It is a case of people bearing extreme ill will toward those who disagree with them. In our intense focus on our differences, we have forgotten the common values that bind us together as Americans.”
She is exactly correct.
And what the real truth is in this issue we may never know.
9.22.18
Well, to say the least the Kavanaugh confirmation process certainly has gotten the nations attention. Several days ago it came out publicly that Christine Ford, a psychology professor at Stanford, states that she was sexually assaulted by Kavanaugh when they were at a high school party. Kavanaugh denies the allegation. The Democrats are demanding a complete investigation by the FBI and that his nomination be withdrawn until the investigation is complete. The Republicans are taking the position that this is a lie contrived to delay the nomination process and Trump has refused to withdraw his nomination of Kavanaugh.
From what I understand Ms. Ford is claiming that Kavanaugh and another teenage boy, Mark Judge, were at a high school party she attended. She went upstairs to a bedroom with Kavanaugh and Judge and states that Kavanaugh tried to sexually attack her but she got away. Ford does not remember where or when this party was, and does not have any witnesses. Judge states that he does not remember the incident.
Sentiment on this accusation is, of course, divided along party lines both in the Senate and among the American people. The father right your political beliefs the more you believe that this is a completely false accusation contrived by Democrats to smear Kavanaugh and delay the confirmation hearings. The farther left you are the more you believe Ford’s accusations and you believe that Kavanaugh is not fit to be a Supreme Court Justice.
So what do I think? Well, let’s look at what we know and what we don’t know.
<> Ms. Ford’s accusation is plausible. Any accusation of sexual assault, or any type of assault, should be taken seriously.
<> Ford’s story has no collaboration in either evidence or witnesses. Since none have come to light by now I am pretty sure none will. The Democrats have known about this for over a month, and you can bet that for the last month the Democrats have exhausted ever avenue they could to find anything that could confirm Ford’s accusations. If a witness has not been found by now there is none.
<> Several things make the accusation difficult to support. Her lack of details other than her description of the assault. Her failure to mention it or take any action until decades later. It is difficult to believe she would wait this long considering her professional status as a psychologist that makes her an expert at dealing with issues of emotion and turmoil.
<> Kavanaugh has been vetted by everybody in congress and every news agency in the country. Many have tried to find ways to demean him yet he has held up to the scrutiny. Far better, I think, than any of the politicians who have sought to abase him would have. The worst I have heard is that at times he engaged in excessive alcohol consumption while in college. That isn’t a severe character flaw or deviant behavior. How many of our current legislators, judges, justices, news reporters and fellow citizens have done the same? What percent of college students consume excessive alcohol during their college years? I bet the percentage is very high.
<> Ms. Ford’s character has remained publicly unvetted. This is not surprising since there is no political benefit to either the Republicans or Democrats to investigate her past. She deserves to be considered an honest and moral person. The American public can only hope this is true.
<> The manor in which Nancy Pelosi introduced this issue to both congress and to the public wreaks of underhanded political posturing and manipulation. She knew about this issue for a month but did not bring it to light until she thought it would have the maximum effect in delaying the hearings. She said it was to protect the privacy of Ms. Ford, yet Pelosi could have instituted the process for a covert investigation to protect the privacy of Ms. Ford but she did not. Within a few days of Pelosi’s accusations against Kavanaugh an “unknown leak” told the Washington Post who Ms. Ford was. Pelosi’s actions have done nothing but harm to Ms. Ford, as Pelosi’s timing and lame excuses for delay cast a shroud of doubt on the sincerity and honesty of Ms. Ford’s accusation. No one has done more damage to Ms. Ford’s credibility than Nancy Pelosi. Despite Pelosi’s bellowing about injustice and women’s rights her actions indicate that she is manipulating Ford like a cheap video game. Pelosi is using any injustice Ms. Ford may have suffered as a political pawn with no regard for Ms. Ford or her well being and no real interest in the justice she claims needs to be done. If any aggressive act was done by Kavanaugh Nancy Pelosi has made it very hard to believe.
So what do I think? Like everybody else I really don’t know. I think something happened to Ms. Ford and I am not sure she knows who or when or where. I don’t know if it was Kavanaugh but his vetting seems to show that it is highly improbable that he would be the assailant. Yes the incident could have happened just like Ms. Ford said, It could have not happened at all or something else entirely happened. It looks like everybody involved is going to testify y before congress. That probably won’t settle a thing as congressional hearings are generally feckless. It seems at this point that Kavanaugh deserves the benefit of the doubt, sorta the “innocent until proven guilty” idea.
9.11.18
This is the 17th anniversary of the 9-11 terrorists attacks on the World Trade Center twin towers, the Pentagon and the thwarted hijacking of Flight 93. This attack cannot be forgotten or minimized in history. If we do not diligently combat all terrorism both in the U.S. and world wide we will see similar events again. If we do not learn from history it will repeat itself.
The Raving Moderate on Terrorism
9.10.18
The last few weeks the majority of the news on TV and the internet and the radio has been about the Kavanaugh nomination. The Democrats are doing everything they can to block the process, trying to delay it past the upcoming election. The Republicans are doing everything they can to push it through and get it done as quickly as possible. The Democrats are using slogans like “let the voters speak” and “let the people decide” in reference to waiting on the confirmation until after the election. This is actually a reasonable position, since the Republican’s delayed the nomination to replace Scalia for almost a year, leaving President Obama’s nominee Merrick Garland’s confirmation process open 266 days and overall delaying the process past Trump’s January 2017 inauguration. Scalia died in February of 2016 and Trump was sworn as President in January 20th, 2017. Trump then nominated Neil Gorsich and he was sworn in as a Supreme Court Justice on April 10th, 2017. It was 422 days from the time of Scalia’s death to the swearing in of a new Justice. Yet that is only the 8th longest Delay in history in replacing a S.C. Justice, but is is the longest since the 1800’s. The only delay in the modern era that was even close was 391 days before Nixon nominee Harry Blackmun was approved and sworn in to replace Abe Fortas between May 1969 and June 1970. Since 1970 the average time it has taken to confirm a nomination to the Supreme Court is 67 days.
Cory Booker attempted the most self-aggrandizing stunt I have seen since the election. He claimed that he was going to release classified information regardless of the consequences, even if he lost his senate seat. In his own words he called this his “I am Spartacus” moment. Well, it turned out that the memo that Booker released, that was intended to show racial profiling by Kavanaugh, showed the opposite. Also it turns out that the memo was not classified either. It turned out that Booker’s Spartacus moment was completely bogus and only a failed self serving attempt to draw attention to himself and try to make himself look a lot more important than he really is.
Is a Failed Spartacus moment actually a FARTicus moment? Just asking…..
It is no secret that Booker intends to seek the Democrat Presidential Nomination in 2020, but as I watched this unfold I became pretty sure that nobody could really stupid enough to vote for such a self centered lying Bozo. But then again, Donald Trump did get elected President.
The problem the Democrats have here is that they do not have any control. The Republicans have made it clear that they will invoke the “Nuclear Option” to confirm Kavanaugh by a 51% margin if needed. If they do that then it will set precedent for all future S.C. Nominees. That does not seem like a good idea, but I did not think that the Democrats inventing and using the Nuke Op back years ago was a good idea then either. As a centrist (aka:moderate) I prefer compromise to forced domination but since the Democrats were the first to use the forced domination process fothe Nuke Op I guess I can’t be too angry with the Republicans for doing the same. The Democrats have to be hearing some ghosts from the past considering that they were the ones that first instituted the Nuke Op procedure even though the majority of Americans were against it. I wonder if they also hear Barack Obama’s voice as he is telling the Republican minorities in congress “…elections have consequences…”
Another argument that the Democrats are making is that a Kavanaugh nomination will throw the Court “out of balance”. Well, actually it has been “out of balance” for over a decade. Since Chief Justice Roberts replaced the seat held By William Rehnquist in 2005 the Court has been slightly left leaning with 4 far left Justices, 3 far right Justices, Kennedy leaning center-left and Roberts leaning center-right. Replacing Scolia with Garland would certinallyhave done a lot more to throw the court “out of balance” than replacing Kennedy with Kavanaugh but the Democrats kinda keep forgetting to mention that in their argument.
So since when do the Democrats or Republicans, or for that matter any politician, actually care about the Supreme Court actually being evenly balanced?
The correct answer is …. NEVER!
All any politician cares about is furthering their own agenda to gain more power, control and personal wealth. Of course they are more than willing to try to tip the balance of power in their favor any way they can including gaining advantage and influence through the Supreme Court.
From what I can see it looks like Kavanaugh will get confirmed, but the process will get nasty and the vote will be along party lines. The Republicans will have to use the “Nuclear Option” to confirm a S.C. Justice for the first time and, like when the Democrats initially instituted the protocol to confirm lower court judges, will probably live to regret it. I can foresee some time in the future when the Democrats will use the Nuke Op do the same or something more extreme. President Obama’s words are very true and timeless “…elections have consequences…”, our legislators should also note that their actions have consequences too. Neither side should ever forget that.
9.2.18
All the polls for the upcoming election look like the Democrats are going to take over the majority in the House, but lose a few seats in the Senate. Well, I guess it’s back to gridlock. On second thought, haven’t the Republicans pretty much achieved gridlock on their own. It’s very possible that we won’t see much difference. Just business as usual. The normal legislative B.S., getting nothing useful done and doing lots of bellowing about it. Historically the party of a newly elected president always loses the subsequent election. This election favors the Democrats both historically and in the polls, but the last time I believed the polls Donald Trump got elected.
I have had a couple of interesting conversations lately about a “generational” blue wave coming. There is a good argument for this, as millennials will soon outnumber baby boomers and millennials tend to vote Democrat by better than a 6-4 margin while baby boomers are only slightly right leaning.
I found a pretty comprehensive ongoing study by poll by The Roper Center at Cornell University that is full of information on voting by age and voting demographics in general. For example, in 1976 53% of voters age 18-29 voted for Jimmy Carter (Dem) and 47% voted for Gerald Ford (Rep). Voters between ages 30-44 voted 52% for Carter and 48% for Ford and voters 45-60 voted 52% for Ford and 48% for Carter. 12 years later, 1988, those voters that were about 90% of the “young” voters in 1976 (then 18-19) are now in the 30-44 age group which voted 54% for George Bush (Rep) and 46% for Mike Dukakas (Dem). Looking at all the age groups in the study over several decades I saw that “conservative age drift” is pretty common as people tend to vote more conservative as they age, but one thing I did notice is that with millinnials the drift does exist but it is not as extreme. As millennials reach middle age they are drifting right in smaller numbers than previous generations. Since we will not have full age statistics on millennial for another 30 years or so only time will tell if this phenomenon continues, but as I looked at the existing numbers it appears that millennials have more of a tendency to “stay blue” as they age. If the blue wave does come it will be in trickles, but it may be an unpleasant surprise for the Republicans as districts and states that are traditionally red slowly turn purple and blue if the trend I see in the survey continues. Remember that most elections are won or lost by only a few percent.
One interesting stat I turned up on this was from the Washington Post that stated ”…more than 4 in 10 millennials identify as independents, according to the Pew Research Center, history has shown that most young adults vote for the Democratic Party. “ and it goes on to state : “Most male millennials (57 percent) and most white millennials (61 percent) believe neither party cares for them …. Overall, a third of millennials said that neither party cares about people like them, according to a new NBC News/GenForward survey. Well, I think they are getting it right, both parties are so corrupt that special interests are in to much control, and they don’t care about the average voter other than to find a way to make them fearful enough of “the other side” that they will act and vote out of fear and hate instead of reason.
It is an amazing statistic that 40% of millennials identify themselves as independents considering that in previous generations most people were definitely either Republican or Democrat with very few “independent” or minor party supporters. As a moderate I think this is great as I strongly advocate the rise of a Centrist political party of moderates that want to leave the hate and bigotry both major parties need to keep American divided and maintain their power. A party that wants an American government that works for average citizens instead of power hungry politicians, extremists and special interests.