12.27.18
We are about a week into the feared government shutdown. The stock market is at about 23,000, about 1500 points lower than the last time I wrote here when it was about 24,500. It has been dropping steadily for a couple months now and a few days ago it dipped below 22,000. I am concerned about the economy and the drop in my 401k, but I’ve seen this scenario before. It is a cause for vexation of course, as is any time the financial world gets weird, but I don’t think this is the big crash or the end of the world. The budget will get resolved and this too shall pass.
I keep hearing about all the financial pain the shutdown is causing for the unpaid government workers. I am sure there are some people that live paycheck to paycheck and need the money. This is not fair to those individuals. I am sure they will be eligible for unemployment and other benefits. I presume that their health insurance will stay active. I am sure also sure that they will eventually receive all their full wages, because this has happened before and they have always been made whole. For most suspended workers this is an extra paid vacation.
12.11.18
The possibility of a government shutdown is the news story of the month so far. I think it has had a minor affect on the stock market, along with playing “Tariff Tag” with China, as the DJIA is down about 1500 points from a few weeks ago. Trump wants about $5 billion in the budget for border security including building about 700 miles of 30 foot high wall along the border with Mexico. The Democrats don’t want to give anything for a border wall or increased security. Our budget is about $2.5 trillion. This is a tiny fraction of our budget. It seems stupid that this is actually an issue. This just seems like the Democrats hate of Trump is more important than actually passing a budget.
Meeting between Trump, Pence, Pelosi and Schumer resulted in stupid accusations, useless rhetoric and mindless talking points. Nothing was accomplished.
I really don’t care if we have a “government shutdown”. It is just doesn’t seem to matter much any more. It’s getting to be an expected annual event and only a few non-essential offices actually shut down anyway. Last time the effect on the nation and on our economy was fairly minimal. Still, it seems idiotic that our politicians can’t figure it out. Trump has said many times he is willing to let the shutdown happen. That’s a crappy attitude but what else is new with Trump. I guess if that’s what it takes to get the budget done right then let it happen. Chuck Schumer stated that the Democrats are willing to do the same thing they did last year. That’s great, then we can be back in this same place next year. That accomplishes nothing. I think that the president, vice president and all legislators should lose 2 weeks pay for every day the government is shut down. If that were the case then they would resolve their differences and pass a functional budget 1 day, which is all it should really take.
12.6.18
We’re still playing “Tariff Tag” with the Chinese. We have tariff’s on their steel, aluminum, solar panels, washing machines and some other manufactured stuff we import while they are imposing tariffs on soy beans and other agricultural products we send them. This hasn’t had a huge effect on our economy yet, but the stock market has been stagnant and there has been a lot on the news about farmers that can’t sell their crops. Trump says he’s gonna help the farmers by giving them financial aid using money from the tariff’s we are imposing on Chinese goods coming here. That seems reasonable. Since almost 10% of Americans don’t have enough food why can’t we use some of the unsold products to feed our hungry brothers and sisters here at home?
1.17.18
The “Camp” Fire continues to rage in Butte County in northern California. So far it has burned over 100,000 acres and has killed over 20 people. The death toll makes this much worse than the Thomas Fire that burned through Ventura County last December burning 280,000 acres.
Both fires are attributed to power lines coming off poles in high winds and igniting dry brush because the land around the poles was not cleared, then spreading through dry brush and trees. Then the fire spread rapidly because we don’t manage our forests and vacant lands so there was plenty of dry brush and/or dead trees to burn like kindling.
Both these fires, like most wild fires, never should have happened. It seems like we should be able to attach electrical wires to poles so they don’t come off in the wind. We have the ability to clear flammable weeds and brush around power wires so if they do come down there is less to burn. Maybe we could bury power wires in high risk fire areas, I don’t think they will catch anything on fire if they are under ground.
The Thomas Fire burned through Ventura County, which is almost completely dry brush, grass, cactus, tumbleweeds and a few scrub oaks or other small trees. It is pretty difficult to clear brush on 280,000 acres. Since southern California has had a drought for the last half decade everything was dry and ready to burn. The Camp Fire was in Butte County, fueled by tall pines and other trees. The forest apparently had not been cleared of dead trees for decades, giving a fire plenty of dry fuel to spread quickly. One of the talking heads on TV stated that the forest had not been cleared because Environmental Coalitions had lobbied and persuaded legislators to leave the forest in their natural state. IF this is true it sounds like another good intention that was not thought through. Either way, we obviously need to rethink how to manage our open spaces and national forests. Maybe we could give the lumber companies the right to take out a few trees if they will clean up the forest as they go through it. Maybe in southern California we could lend or lease some of the open spaces to custom farming. The farmers could grow crops in exchange for clearing a certain amount of brush or making fire breaks and fire roads. These, of course are just random suggestions. I don’t know what the solution is, but whatever it will take action form law makers at both the state and federal level. Unfortunately, knowing our politicians, this will only be important until the fire is out and the dead are buried, then the problem will be forgotten until more people die in the next disastrous wild fire.
11.12.18
The Democrats have been celebrating the outcome of the midterm elections all over the media lately and with good reason. Looks like the Republicans managed to hold on to the Senate lost about everything else there was to lose.
The Democrats had twice as many Senate seats at risk as the Republicans, but the Republicans only manage to gain two seats and now control 53 Senate seats. Going into the election the Republicans controlled the House of Representatives by a margin of 235 – 197 with seven seats vacant. The Democrats won 41 seats, 17 more than needed to take a majority, and basically flipped those numbers and now control 235 of the 435 seats. So the Democrats took a small hit in the Senate and an overwhelming victory in the House of Representatives. When you consider the number of seats the Democrats had at risk the outcome of the Senate races is actually a victory for the Democrats as well. Just to keep things in perspective let’s remember that in the election of the 2010, the first midterm during the Obama administration, the Republicans had a net gain of 64 seats in the House of Representatives. While the Democrat wins are impressive, they are well within the range of normal on a bell curve.
Democrat candidates also won convincingly at the state level. The Democrats gained control of seven state governorships and they had a net gain of 4 state Attorney Generals. Democrats also won a majority in five new majorities in state Senates and one new state House of Representatives. Again, just to keep things in perspective, in 2010 Republicans had a net gain of 12 governorships.
A political trifecta is a term used to indicate that one political party has control of the governorship, the Senate and the House of Representatives in one state. In other words one-party has full political control of a given state government. Before this election the Democrats had trifectas in eight states and Republicans in 26 states. After the election the Democrats now have trifectas in 14 states and the Republicans now hold trifectas in 22 states. Before the election there were 16 states with divided government, after the election there are only 14 states that are not completely dominated by one party or another. The net gain of six trifectas is by the Democrats emphasizes the scope and extent of their victory’s.
It’s my opinion the Democrats simply outsmarted and outmaneuver the Republicans this election. Republican base was very unmotivated and that probably cost the Republicans several close elections. The Democrats were smart enough to tailor their candidates to the electorates they thought they could win. Winning candidates that appear more moderate in areas where the electorate had more moderate and right-leaning voters. The Democrat election efforts were much better organize and they got a better voter turnout because of that. The Democrats easily could’ve lost three more Senate seats Republicans had run anyone but Roy Moore in Alabama, and a couple of close elections had gone the other way. I believe the reason they won those close elections was because of their better organization and better communication to their electorate.
The Democrats did not win any overwhelming victories in the battleground states or the U.S. House seats that they newly won. They did not win elections by a lot but they won a lot of elections by a little bit. Maybe these little victories didn’t really amount to a blue tsunami, but it may be an indication which way the tide is going.
11.10.18
There has been a rash of mass-murder shootings lately. The latest one in the nearby city of Thousand Oaks, California. The killer, David Long, 28, lived locally. He used a 45 caliber handgun to kill 13 people and himself at the Borderline Bar and Grill. He was a frequent patron there. Just a few weeks ago a 46 year old man killed 10 people plus himself at the Tree of life Synagogue in Pittsburgh. Last month alone there were 40 people killed an 117 injured in mass shootings in the U.S. The motives for gun violence are varied and wide ranging, including family/personal problems, gang violence, religious hate and many other issues. Most killers, using guns or any other means, knew their victims before the crime. Mass shootings are a very small percentage of murders in this country. When a gun is used it is usually a hand gun, yet here in California we keep trying to ban assault rifles.
We need to find a way to deal with the mental sickness that results in these shootings. I have said this many times, including after the concert shootings in Las Vegas. The politicians will never be able to take away enough guns to stop it. There will never be enough police to stop it. There is something about our society that causes the kind of isolation or anger or depression or insanity that results in these monstrous acts. Something has to break in the human mind for a person to think it is OK to do this. We need to figure out what that is and we need to stop it. Yet every issue is different. What makes someone decide it is necessary to kill their family? Yet the motivation is completely different than rival gang members killing each other. How much can someone hate others for their skin color or religion to justify mass killing in their mind? I don’t know what the answers are, but I hope somehow we can find it. Maybe we could get some unbiased studies or intelligent laws or real answers to this problem if our Congress could put as much time into solving this issue as the do in trying to investigate, insult and belittle each other to further their own power and position. Isn’t this issue really more important than building a wall or impeaching Trump. It’s time for our law makers to grow up and act like adults and get some answers to solve this illness that infects too many people in this nation.
11.3.18
There’s been so much going on lately that I have not had time to write about the coming election. The election is only three days away and most of the polls are starting to gel as to what the outcome will be. The general consensus is that the Democrats are going to take the house back and that the Republicans are going to keep the Senate any probably gain 3-5 seats. One Republican seat that is definitely in jeopardy is the special election to fill the Senate seat vacated by Jeff Sessions. Republican candidate Roy Moore has been accused of having sex with a 14-year-old girl when he was 32 years old. It looks like these allegations have grown legs in the press and Republicans could lose the Senate seat for the first time since 1992. This is the best candidate the Republicans could come up with? Really?
The Democrats have about 20 Senate seats in play, about twice as many as the Republicans. The Democrats definitely have more to lose this election. However, historically midterm elections result in current president’s party losing seats in both the House and Senate. The Democrats look a lot stronger overall this election especially considering the fact that many Republican politicians are trying to distance themselves from Donald Trump. This is not surprising considering all the negative press that he gets, much of it brought on by his own tweets and stupid statements, and many Republican candidates see him as a negative to their campaign. Between Trump’s low approval ratings and the self-created problems of Republicans like Roy Moore it looks like there could be a Blue Wave this year. When you consider that the Democrats seem far more organized and far more motivated to vote this election it is possible that the Democrats could win both the house and the senate.
11.2.18
It is extremely painful to listen to our current President give a speech. He babbles nonsensically, cannot stay on topic and everything he talks about he turns negative. It is embarrassing that the President of the United States has such poor communication skills. Whether he is giving a speech or answering questions to the press everything he says has a negative and defensive tone to it. I watched him give quite a few speeches and in all of them sounded indifferent, uncaring and self-centered. I think a lot of Trump’s problem is that he is so egocentric that he feels he must be defensive about everything. I guess this is somewhat understandable since he is constantly attacked by the press but is also a very juvenile reaction.
Trump’s constant tweeting does as much harm to his public persona as his poor public speaking ability. Trump needs to realize that tweets were never meant to convey complex ideas or important thoughts. Tweets were developed as a form of light communication for short, simple messages (Afterall, Twitter is based on the SMS protocol). Unfortunately way too many of our politicians and celebrities try to use it to promote themselves and their bigoted agendas, which only results in adding to the process of spreading hate and fear with stupid ~50 word messages of dogmatic nonsense. It is absurd that not only Trump but many other politicians and public figures express themselves on twitter instead of figuring out some action that would actually make sense. Trump’s inability to express himself is only magnified when he has to condense it to the limited number of characters in a tweet.
After listening to Donald Trump the last 2 years it has become apparent that these habits are not going to change. Americans are going to have to continue to suffer the indignity and embarrassment of having a president with the communication skills of a school yard bully with no filter between his mouth and his brain.